What Percent Of Registered Voters Are Independent

Cardinal POINT FROM THIS Commodity

— Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such every bit Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more than registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in political party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.

Poring over party registration

This is not the all-time of times for the Democratic Political party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this fall's midterm elections with an advantage in one central aspect of the political process — their forcefulness in states where voters register past party.

Altogether, in that location are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters annals without reference to party. Among the political party registration states are some of the nation's near populous: California, New York, Florida, Northward Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.

The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, at that place are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more than registered Republicans than Democrats. In amass, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the political party registration states approaches 12 one thousand thousand.

Still, Republican Donald Trump plant a route to victory in 2016 that went through the party registration states. He scored a near sweep of those where there were more Republicans than Democrats, winning 11 of the 12, while too taking six of the 19 states where there were more Democrats than Republicans — a group that included the pivotal battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

Map ane and Table ane: Party registration totals by state, July 2018

Democrats no longer control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, or for that matter nearly of the governorships or land legislatures. Merely they still maintain a toehold in the political process with their edge in the realm of voter registration. At least that is the example in the 31 states and the Commune of Columbia that register voters by party. As of this month, 13 of these states (plus the Commune) avowal a Autonomous plurality in registered voters, compared to eight states where there is a Republican plurality. In the other 10 states, at that place are more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans, with Democrats out-registering the Republicans in six of these states and the GOP with more voters than the Democrats in the other four. They are indicated in the chart every bit "I(d)" or "I(r)." Nationally, 4 out of every 10 registered voters in political party registration states are Democrats, with slightly less than three out of every 10 registered equally Republicans or independents. Overall, the current Democratic advantage over Republicans in the party registration states approaches 12 million.

Sources: Recent party registration numbers used here are from state election websites and are based on totals compiled in early July 2018. Registration data are as of the following months: October 2016 (Kansas and Rhode Island); Feb 2017 (Massachusetts); November 2017 (Connecticut); Jan 2018 (Oklahoma); March 2018 (Arizona and Maine); Apr 2018 (New Hampshire and New York); May 2018 (California, Florida, Maryland, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania); June 2018 (Arkansas, District of Columbia, Kentucky, New Jersey, New United mexican states, North Carolina, and West Virginia); and July 2018 (Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming).

Notes: In states such every bit Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, New York, Rhode Isle, Due south Dakota, and Utah, the full number of active and inactive voters are presented on the country election website, but but the number of active registered voters is used in this article. The "other" column includes voters registered with third parties. Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding. Zippo per centum (0%) indicates less than 0.v%. "NA" indicates at that place were no numbers in this category.

Some caveats

At this bespeak, it might be wise to pause and enquire the question: Why do these numbers affair, either individually or in the amass?

Certainly at that place are facts that argue that they should exist taken with a grain or two of table salt. Most party registration states are establish in more Autonomous terrain: the Northeast (eleven states plus the District of Columbia) and the West (x states), followed past the Southward (six states) and the Midwest (four states), all of the latter rural states westward of the Mississippi River.

To be sure, in that location are a number of major states that do not register voters by party, such as Texas, Georgia, Washington, and the keystones of the industrial Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. If they did register past party, Texas, Georgia, and Indiana would almost certainly add to the Republican full; the industrial states probably less and then.

Comparison party registration totals betwixt states at a detail point in fourth dimension can exist a bit misleading, specially because some may have recently completed a purge of "dead forest" on their rolls while others have not. Oftentimes, the trend line over a series of years is more valuable to wait at than a ane-time registration count.

States can also differ on how they report agile versus inactive voters. Basically, the latter have non voted in several sequent elections and accept not responded to the efforts of election officials to accomplish them, though they are generally allowed to evidence upwards and vote if they have non moved. Some states fold in agile with inactive voters to produce one g total. A few states break the two categories out separately, where the number of active voters routinely dwarf the number of inactive voters, sometimes past a ratio in excess of 10 to i. (This article uses only country totals of agile voters, wherever possible.)

And there is some sentiment that a voter's political party identification may hateful less than it one time did, as the number of individuals who register as "Independent" (or "No Political party Preference," "Unaffiliated," or whatsoever other nom de plume the private states prefer) steadily grows. At the beginning of this century, barely 20% of all voters in party registration states were independents. Nowadays, that total is approaching 30%.

Altogether, there are 10 states with more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans. These states are mainly in the Northeast, with a cluster besides in the West. Past comparison, there are Autonomous pluralities of registered voters in xiii states plus the Commune of Columbia and viii other states with Republicans alee of both Democrats and independents. In addition, there are six states where in that location is an independent plurality but Democrats outnumber Republicans, and four states where independents are on top of the registration totals but Republicans outnumber Democrats. That produces the xix to 12 land registration advantage for the Democrats mentioned earlier.

With the growth in independents, many voters seem to be saying to the two major parties: "a pox on both your houses."

Notwithstanding it also can be argued that registering Democratic or Republican is far more of a statement than it once was. In the current age of sharp-edged partisanship, there is far more than than a "dime'due south worth of difference" between the two major parties, so registering as a Democrat or Republican is a very intentional act of differentiation.

And that makes the political party registration figures worth looking at. A comparison of political party registration totals on the eve of the 2016 presidential election with the actual voting in Nov shows a noticeable correlation between party registration and the state past state election outcomes. 20-iv of the 31 party registration states were won by the nominee whose political party had more registered voters (discounting independents for this particular comparing). That is a 77% correlation rate between party registration advantage and a winning electoral outcome. The percentage goes up to 88% if 1 removes the Southward, the 1 area of the country where party registration is a lagging indicator of the fortunes of the two major parties.

Chart 1 and Table 2: Nationwide party registration trends since 2000

Since 2000, the nationwide proportion of registered Democratic and Republican voters in party registration states have both gone down, while the per centum of registered independents has steadily grown. The latter has nearly reached the nationwide percentage of registered Republicans, which has long been second nationally to the Democrats. Altogether, the combined number of registered Democrats and Republicans, which was 77% in October 2000, is now downwards to 69%, while the proportion of registered independents over the same period has increased from 22% to 28%.

Note: Based on active registered voters in states where the number of active and inactive registrants is listed. In the election-eve 2000, 2008, and 2016 entries, "Independents" include a comparatively small number of registered miscellaneous voters who practise not fit into a particular category. Percentages do non add to 100 since the small pct of registered third party voters is non included.

Sources: Richard Winger's monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News, for election-eve party registration numbers in 2000, 2008, and 2016; the websites of land election offices for July 2018.

Southern exceptionalism

Even though Democrats began losing their authorisation in the S a half century ago, they still retain a registration reward in four of six Southern states where voters annals past party: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, and N Carolina.

In Arkansas, there is a rudimentary system of party registration in which at that place are a few more than Republicans than Democrats, but a vast majority of voters do not identify with either party. In Oklahoma, 1 of the reddest of states over the last few decades, the party registration advantage did not finally flip from Democratic to Republican until a few years ago during Barack Obama's presidency. (Oklahoma is the but state this century where the registration advantage has switched betwixt parties and the Republican lead is probable to hold for the long term. In battleground states such equally Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada, the registration advantage has switched at least once between parties since 2000 and has less of a look of permanence.)

Information technology is an open question every bit to why other party registration states in the South have not as well flipped to the Republicans. For years, they have been regularly voting for GOP candidates up and down the ballot, including 2016 when the whole region except Virginia went for Trump. White southerners who once registered en masse for the Democrats accept been dying off for years. And the time when voters registered Autonomous considering its primary was tantamount to election is long gone. Still, in booming states such every bit Florida and North Carolina, an influx of outsiders registering Democratic could exist helping the party fend off a large GOP registration surge that would flip the states to the Republicans.

Every bit it is, Republicans accept been steadily whittling away at the Democrats' registration advantage in the Southern party registration states. In Florida, the GOP deficit is now less than 230,000 registered voters after existence nearly 660,000 in Oct 2008. In North Carolina, Republicans trail by less than 575,000 registered voters, afterwards existence down by 865,000 a decade agone; while in Kentucky and Louisiana, the GOP registration deficit nowadays is below 300,000 and 400,000 registrants, respectively, less than half of what it was in each country on the eve of the 2000 ballot.

Table iii: State-past-land registration trends since 2000

The nationwide Democratic registration edge has been fashioned on the two coasts, where they have had their greatest electoral success of late. In California alone, the Democratic registration plurality of less than 1.seven million voters in October 2000 has more than doubled to nearly 3.seven million. In New York, the Autonomous registration reward swelled from barely two million at ballot-eve 2000 to almost three million nowadays. Beyond much of the Northeast and West, Democrats have also retained an reward in a number of party registration states in the Due south, where they dominated long ago at the ballot box but take been running on fumes for years. The Autonomous registration edge in Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina has been steadily eroding in contempo decades yet however exists.

Notes: The largest Democratic and Republican registration margins among the four information points are in bold. An asterisk (*) indicates that in July 2018, there were more than voters registered equally independent than Autonomous or Republican. "NA" indicates that political party registration figures are not readily available. Party registration totals are based on the number of active voters in states where totals for both active and inactive voters are posted.

Sources: Election-eve party registration figures for 2000, 2008, and 2016 were compiled by Richard Winger and published in his monthly newsletter, Ballot Access News. The July 2018 data were compiled by the author from party registration numbers posted on land ballot websites (see Sources note for Map one and Table one).

Lots of consistency elsewhere

In the residual of the country, in that location was much more consistency between party registration totals and the 2016 election effect, with merely three non-Southern states voting "against the grain." On election eve in Pennsylvania, there were 915,081 more registered Democrats than Republicans; Trump carried the state by 44,292 votes. In West Virginia, in that location were 175,867 more registered Democrats; Trump won by 300,577 votes. And in New Hampshire, there were 24,232 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the autumn of 2016, but Hillary Clinton took the state by 2,736 votes. That's information technology. The other 22 party registration states outside the South were carried in the presidential balloting by the party with more than registered voters than the other.

And in many of these "in sync" states, the registration advantage in contempo years has grown more Republican or Democratic equally the example may be, augmented past a salubrious increase in independents.

Case in point: California. Xviii years ago, 45% of the state's 15.seven million registered voters were Democrats, 35% were Republicans, and 14% were independents. Last month, on the eve of California's June 5 primary, 44% of the 19.0 million registered voters were Democrats (down one percent betoken from 2000), 25.five% were independents (up xi points), and 25% were Republicans (downward 10 points), as the Republicans dropped to 3rd place in California registration totals and independents rose to second. In the procedure, the nation's near populous state has gone from one that was vaguely competitive for the Republicans at the showtime of the 21st century to one where Republicans have problem competing statewide at all.

The registration trend line in California is a microcosm of sorts of party registration in the nation every bit whole. Democrats are running alee and the ranks of the independents are growing. Yet registered voters in both parties appear to be widely engaged. That was the case in 2016, and likely will be once more in 2018, with Trump flogging problems to rouse his base. In curt, this is a highly partisan era when party registration totals, and the trends that go with them, are well worth watching.

Map 2 and Table 4: Party registration and the 2016 presidential vote

Of the 31 political party registration states, 24 were carried in the 2016 presidential election by the party with the about registered voters in information technology. Donald Trump swept xi of the 12 states with a Republican registration advantage, while Hillary Clinton won 13 of the 19 states (plus the District of Columbia) which had more than registered Democrats than Republicans. Four of the Democratic registration states that Trump took were in the South, led past Florida and N Carolina. He likewise overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both. The simply state with more registered Republicans than Democrats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 was New Hampshire, where the outcome was very close.

Notes: An asterisk (*) indicates states where there were more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans in Oct 2016. "Independents" include a comparatively pocket-sized number of registered miscellaneous voters who exercise not fit into whatsoever particular category.

Sources: Richard Winger'due south Ballot Access News for Oct 2016 party registration data; America Votes 32 (CQ Printing, an imprint of SAGE) for 2016 presidential election results.